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The information provided herein is generated by experimental artificial intelligence and is for informational purposes only.
Public sector pay will increase by 4¾% to 6% in 2024–25, costing an additional £9.4 billion. While public sector pay has historically outperformed the private sector, it has lagged since 2014, with recruitment and retention challenges prevalent across various sectors, particularly in the NHS and police. The need for competitive pay is pressing, especially as the NHS aims to expand its workforce significantly by 2036.
Most wealthy investors are contemplating portfolio adjustments ahead of the November 5 U.S. presidential election, with 77% considering new allocations. The economy is viewed as the top election issue by 84% of investors, who are nearly split on which candidate—Donald Trump or Kamala Harris—would manage it better. Potential beneficiaries of Harris's policies include healthcare and sustainable investing sectors, while Trump's presidency could favor defense and energy industries.
The Federal Reserve's recent 50-basis point rate cut has sparked optimism in equity markets, with the S&P 500 reaching a record high and a year-to-date gain of 20.2%. This easing cycle is expected to support oil prices, projected to rise to around USD 87 a barrel by year-end, while gold has surged nearly 29% this year, potentially reaching USD 2,700 by mid-2025. However, the US dollar faces pressure as the Fed's cuts diminish its yield advantage, prompting investors to seek alternatives and diversify internationally.
Ethereum's price is influenced by the People's Bank of China's economic stimulus and potential easing of monetary policy, which may drive investors towards crypto assets. Attention is also on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's upcoming speech and US price data, with the presidential election campaign adding further market dynamics. Polls show Kamala Harris slightly ahead of Donald Trump, who is viewed as more crypto-friendly.
The U.S. Federal Reserve has cut its key interest rate by 0.50% to 5%, marking its first reduction since March 2020. This decision, anticipated by many, is expected to lead to further easing, with forecasts suggesting an additional 1.5% cut by 2026. The move aims to alleviate financial pressure on households amid rising inflation and high credit costs, while also potentially impacting mortgage and loan rates.
UBS Asset Management maintains a neutral stance on various asset classes amid signs of slowing growth and inflation. While European high yield offers attractive yields, credit spreads are close to cyclical lows, limiting potential price rises. The firm favors the Japanese yen due to anticipated monetary policy tightening and prefers US Treasuries for their improved hedging capacity.
Bitcoin remains above $62,000, buoyed by a recent interest rate cut in the US, although investor euphoria is starting to fade. The upcoming US presidential election, featuring Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, may influence crypto regulations, while key Federal Reserve speeches next week could provide insights into future monetary policy.
Frédéric Rochat, Managing Partner at Lombard Odier, discusses the firm's long-term investment strategy amid declining profits and industry challenges. He expresses concern over the proposed inheritance tax initiative in Switzerland, warning it could destabilize the economy by forcing entrepreneurs to relocate or liquidate their businesses. Rochat emphasizes the importance of preserving Switzerland's balanced economic model, which supports both large corporations and small to medium-sized enterprises.
Ethereum's price has surged ahead of the Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting, where a decision on interest rates is anticipated. Investors are speculating on a potential rate hike of 25 or 50 basis points, with a 63% probability of a 50 basis point cut. Additionally, the US election campaign is expected to influence market dynamics, particularly following a recent debate between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, with hopes for a crypto-friendly administration.
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